***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 5.0 11.9 11.3 81.6 58.0 41.0 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.3 13.2 9.9 80.3 57.5 39.2 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 6.8 18.5 12.7 91.7 61.3 42.2 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.3 10.3 10.4 75.4 55.7 39.6 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.4 9.2 69.9 52.7 37.9 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.6 12.5 82.7 56.5 44.3 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 5.0 11.9 9.5 77.0 56.3 38.4 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 14.7 13.8 90.3 59.1 43.3 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.3 70.7 52.5 37.6 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.7 13.5 80.3 55.4 41.1 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.6 9.0 77.0 55.1 40.0 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.8 10.4 87.6 59.1 42.0 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.4 9.9 78.1 55.8 41.6 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 8.1 19.8 15.8 87.0 58.8 42.3 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 7.0 9.6 83.1 60.0 38.5 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.7 8.9 73.1 53.9 39.9 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.8 13.8 9.6 78.9 57.2 38.8 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.8 15.4 79.5 53.7 41.1 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 6.3 14.2 10.9 86.2 59.6 40.3 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.5 11.2 16.9 93.8 58.9 45.4 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.2 11.1 80.5 57.1 40.4 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 6.1 14.3 11.2 83.6 59.0 39.3 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 6.7 20.3 12.6 95.9 63.1 41.9 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 8.7 21.1 14.6 88.2 58.3 42.2 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.4 12.6 12.1 83.1 58.2 41.9 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.6 9.3 88.2 60.5 43.1 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.1 12.3 11.6 77.8 56.2 40.8 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.1 10.3 78.2 57.1 39.0 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.6 17.4 16.6 85.0 55.6 43.0 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.6 16.0 10.6 82.1 58.1 39.2 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------