***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 78.7 76.4 65.0 97.0 55.7 49.3 53.2 70.1 88.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 81.2 79.2 56.9 97.0 55.7 48.3 61.0 74.4 89.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 98.8 97.0 66.7 99.5 56.8 49.9 68.9 88.5 109.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 84.7 83.9 68.1 99.4 57.1 51.5 53.6 74.2 97.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 73.5 69.1 63.5 94.4 53.5 48.3 47.4 64.9 85.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 66.0 64.8 76.5 99.4 56.3 51.0 44.4 58.9 74.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 49.6 71.0 57.5 96.4 55.4 48.4 50.8 66.2 82.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 100.7 97.3 77.0 97.9 55.1 50.4 74.0 91.6 110.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 72.2 69.9 69.9 97.6 55.6 50.7 46.0 63.3 83.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 87.3 84.2 80.2 97.6 55.1 50.8 59.7 78.0 98.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 66.8 64.1 63.6 98.3 55.9 49.9 42.1 58.0 76.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 57.8 54.7 62.8 97.0 55.0 49.5 35.7 50.1 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 60.4 62.0 68.4 102.7 59.5 53.4 40.5 53.8 68.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 103.5 105.8 84.6 102.3 59.0 52.9 78.2 95.7 114.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 52.7 50.8 57.0 95.6 55.9 49.8 28.6 44.2 63.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 52.8 53.0 64.9 101.0 58.0 51.6 34.5 46.5 60.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 78.3 77.3 56.8 99.7 57.7 49.3 48.6 67.3 88.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 57.5 78.2 85.5 96.0 53.1 49.5 57.9 74.9 93.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 89.7 89.9 60.0 99.2 57.1 49.9 66.3 82.4 100.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 75.2 71.6 85.1 98.2 54.4 50.2 52.9 67.5 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 76.6 74.6 67.3 97.4 55.7 49.9 52.9 68.7 86.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 78.0 81.1 61.9 105.2 61.2 52.3 51.2 68.4 87.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 81.1 83.8 65.7 102.9 59.6 52.2 62.8 75.8 89.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 107.7 107.1 80.1 101.7 57.8 52.1 80.4 98.3 117.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 76.8 76.1 71.4 98.0 56.5 50.7 50.9 68.7 88.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 58.6 57.4 60.2 98.9 56.9 51.8 35.7 50.5 67.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 81.0 79.0 70.2 96.9 55.7 49.9 54.3 72.4 92.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 53.9 51.7 63.1 96.5 55.5 49.9 33.6 47.0 62.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 76.9 102.0 89.9 99.3 55.7 51.0 77.7 95.7 115.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 86.5 84.4 59.7 97.7 56.0 48.5 63.8 78.8 94.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------