***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.2 16.5 0.4 58.9 58.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.2 16.9 0.7 64.0 62.6 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.6 16.4 0.5 60.4 59.5 14.8 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 11.5 11.7 14.3 0.3 55.9 55.5 9.9 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 13.1 13.2 14.2 0.3 57.0 56.5 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 11.9 12.0 12.4 0.3 56.6 56.2 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.4 17.0 0.8 64.5 63.1 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 6.9 6.9 12.1 0.2 53.8 53.6 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 14.2 14.2 14.4 0.3 56.0 55.6 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 13.9 14.0 12.8 0.3 55.4 55.1 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 13.8 14.0 13.7 0.4 57.5 57.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 11.8 11.8 13.1 0.2 54.6 54.4 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 13.4 13.5 12.8 0.3 57.2 56.6 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 14.7 15.1 14.8 0.6 62.8 61.4 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.9 14.7 0.1 52.2 52.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 14.2 14.4 13.5 0.4 57.7 57.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.8 15.7 16.8 0.8 65.0 63.4 13.8 14.8 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.6 12.7 12.2 0.3 57.7 57.0 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.0 16.7 0.7 63.6 62.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 8.3 8.3 10.3 0.3 55.1 54.9 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.3 15.5 0.3 56.7 56.3 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.7 16.6 0.8 65.1 63.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.6 16.3 0.6 63.0 61.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 14.2 14.5 14.3 0.5 60.2 59.2 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.4 14.9 0.4 57.7 57.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 12.8 12.6 12.7 0.0 49.7 49.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.6 15.7 0.4 58.8 58.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.0 13.0 14.5 0.2 53.8 53.7 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 11.0 11.3 11.6 0.5 59.9 59.0 9.5 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.4 16.9 0.7 62.9 61.7 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------