***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.3 17.5 0.9 67.8 64.5 13.9 14.6 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.3 17.7 1.0 69.6 66.0 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 16.9 16.8 17.3 0.9 66.8 63.7 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.8 15.3 0.6 61.6 59.6 9.9 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 13.6 13.4 15.2 0.7 63.7 61.3 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.3 13.4 0.6 62.2 60.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.4 17.8 1.1 70.3 66.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.3 13.2 0.6 62.5 60.2 5.5 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.6 15.4 0.8 65.1 62.5 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.5 13.8 0.7 64.1 61.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.4 14.7 0.6 63.2 60.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.1 14.1 0.5 60.2 58.4 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.6 13.7 0.5 60.0 58.6 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.3 15.5 0.8 65.6 63.1 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.6 15.7 0.5 59.8 57.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.0 14.6 14.5 0.6 61.6 59.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.9 17.6 1.2 71.4 67.4 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 13.3 13.1 13.1 0.7 63.8 61.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.1 17.5 1.0 68.6 65.2 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 9.0 8.8 11.5 0.7 63.5 61.1 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.6 16.5 0.8 65.4 62.7 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.8 17.4 1.0 70.0 66.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.4 17.1 0.9 66.9 63.9 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 15.1 14.9 15.2 0.8 65.2 62.7 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.3 15.8 0.7 64.3 62.0 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.1 13.9 0.5 60.3 59.0 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.3 16.6 0.9 67.1 64.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.3 15.5 0.5 60.9 58.8 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 11.8 11.5 12.5 0.7 63.3 61.3 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.3 17.7 1.0 68.8 65.3 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------