***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.8 15.5 17.6 0.6 63.2 60.6 14.2 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.6 17.7 0.6 62.7 59.9 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.2 17.5 0.5 60.4 58.8 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.9 15.4 0.1 53.8 55.1 10.5 11.7 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.2 13.7 15.4 0.3 57.7 58.0 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.3 12.8 13.8 0.4 60.2 59.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.7 17.8 0.7 64.6 61.1 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.3 13.6 0.4 60.1 59.4 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.0 15.7 0.3 58.4 58.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.4 14.9 14.1 0.4 59.8 59.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.3 14.8 15.0 0.3 58.8 59.2 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.7 14.5 0.3 56.7 57.4 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.6 13.9 14.0 0.2 55.0 56.1 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.2 15.7 15.7 0.4 59.0 58.5 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 15.8 -0.1 48.0 50.4 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 15.6 14.9 14.8 0.2 56.5 57.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.1 17.5 0.7 64.1 60.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.2 13.7 13.4 0.4 60.6 59.6 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.3 17.6 0.5 61.2 59.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.7 11.9 0.5 62.3 60.1 8.4 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.8 16.7 0.4 58.9 58.3 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.0 17.3 0.5 61.6 59.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.8 17.2 0.4 59.3 58.0 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.8 15.2 15.5 0.4 59.6 58.9 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.2 14.7 15.9 0.4 58.7 57.8 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.5 14.1 0.1 51.6 51.8 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 15.3 14.9 16.7 0.5 62.1 59.8 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.6 15.7 0.0 50.9 53.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.3 12.9 0.5 61.2 59.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.7 17.8 0.6 62.6 59.9 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------