***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.7 16.4 0.3 61.8 59.1 14.0 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.8 16.7 0.5 66.0 62.8 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.2 16.3 0.3 60.4 58.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.2 14.2 0.1 54.9 53.8 10.3 11.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.9 14.2 0.2 57.5 55.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 0.1 54.5 53.6 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.9 16.8 0.6 67.8 64.2 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.7 12.1 0.1 52.1 51.8 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 14.5 0.2 58.0 56.1 13.4 13.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.9 12.8 0.2 56.3 54.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.8 13.7 0.2 56.9 55.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.6 13.0 0.0 50.0 50.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 12.8 0.1 53.0 52.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.7 14.6 0.3 59.1 57.1 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.9 14.9 0.1 52.1 51.6 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.1 13.5 0.1 54.9 53.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.3 16.5 0.6 68.9 65.3 14.1 14.7 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.7 12.1 0.2 58.5 56.6 11.8 12.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.6 16.5 0.4 63.9 61.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.4 10.3 0.2 57.2 55.9 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.0 15.6 0.2 57.7 56.0 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.3 16.3 0.5 65.5 62.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.1 16.1 0.3 61.1 58.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 14.3 0.3 59.4 57.3 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.0 14.9 0.2 58.0 56.3 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.4 12.6 -0.2 43.1 44.8 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 15.7 0.3 61.7 59.2 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.9 14.6 0.1 52.5 51.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.1 11.6 0.3 60.1 58.0 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.9 16.7 0.5 64.6 61.5 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------