***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 22.4 22.5 23.2 -1.6 26.4 28.6 23.2 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.4 23.6 23.6 -1.2 32.7 34.0 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 22.7 22.7 23.0 -2.0 23.7 25.8 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 15.4 15.0 20.4 -2.3 16.0 18.3 16.6 17.9 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 23.0 22.5 20.8 -2.6 14.9 17.6 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 21.8 21.0 18.2 -2.9 10.2 12.8 23.1 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.4 23.5 23.8 -1.0 35.2 36.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 11.1 10.3 18.4 -3.1 11.3 13.9 12.3 13.5 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 22.4 22.0 21.7 -2.5 16.7 19.4 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 22.1 21.4 19.6 -2.9 13.7 16.3 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 22.9 22.2 20.3 -2.8 12.7 15.6 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 21.9 21.1 19.3 -3.1 10.6 13.3 23.2 24.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 23.1 22.3 19.3 -3.1 10.1 12.8 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 22.4 22.4 21.5 -2.2 22.0 24.1 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 23.6 23.4 22.3 -2.1 18.0 20.1 24.6 25.8 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 23.7 23.0 20.0 -2.9 11.6 14.3 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.4 23.6 23.6 -0.9 37.0 38.1 23.2 24.7 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 21.5 21.0 18.8 -2.9 14.5 17.0 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 22.7 22.9 23.4 -1.5 29.9 31.4 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 17.2 16.6 16.5 -3.1 12.5 14.9 18.6 19.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 22.4 22.1 22.5 -2.4 18.7 21.3 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.0 23.9 23.3 -1.1 34.5 35.7 23.7 25.3 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 22.7 22.9 23.0 -1.8 26.3 28.0 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 21.9 21.6 21.0 -2.5 18.4 20.8 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 23.0 22.7 21.7 -2.0 21.6 24.0 23.8 25.2 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 22.8 21.9 18.6 -3.2 8.8 11.2 24.1 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 23.0 22.9 22.7 -1.6 26.5 28.6 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 23.5 23.0 21.0 -2.4 14.6 16.9 24.6 25.8 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 16.8 16.3 17.9 -2.9 14.5 17.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 23.1 23.3 23.6 -1.4 30.7 32.3 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------