***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 27.2 27.7 27.1 0.8 60.7 59.9 25.1 26.7 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 27.9 27.4 27.3 1.0 62.8 61.8 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 26.7 27.0 27.0 0.6 58.5 58.0 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 19.9 19.9 25.1 0.2 53.5 53.4 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 27.1 27.2 25.1 0.3 54.6 54.4 25.2 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 25.6 25.4 22.6 0.1 51.1 51.1 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 27.6 27.3 27.5 1.2 65.1 63.8 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 15.1 14.9 23.2 0.2 52.2 52.1 13.2 14.7 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 26.4 26.5 25.4 0.4 55.2 55.0 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 26.3 26.3 24.0 0.3 53.8 53.7 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 26.9 26.8 24.4 0.2 53.3 53.2 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 25.8 25.5 24.0 0.1 51.0 51.0 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 26.9 26.6 23.4 0.0 50.3 50.4 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 26.3 26.7 25.3 0.7 58.5 58.0 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 27.7 27.5 25.3 0.0 50.4 50.5 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 27.5 27.4 24.1 0.1 51.5 51.6 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.0 27.3 1.2 64.9 63.6 24.2 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 25.7 25.8 23.4 0.4 55.2 54.9 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 26.2 26.7 27.2 0.9 61.0 60.2 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 21.3 21.3 21.2 0.3 54.0 53.7 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 26.7 26.9 26.3 0.5 56.3 56.0 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 27.6 27.3 27.0 1.0 62.8 61.8 24.6 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 26.4 26.8 26.8 0.7 59.1 58.5 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 25.9 26.2 25.2 0.5 56.9 56.5 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 27.0 27.4 25.5 0.7 58.9 58.4 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 26.5 26.2 23.3 0.0 49.9 50.1 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.1 26.4 0.9 61.7 60.9 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 27.8 27.5 25.1 0.0 50.4 50.5 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 20.9 21.1 22.4 0.4 55.5 55.2 18.9 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 27.5 27.0 27.4 0.9 61.9 61.0 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------