***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.5 27.9 0.6 59.1 58.0 25.8 26.9 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.8 27.1 28.0 0.8 60.8 59.3 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.9 27.9 0.5 57.7 56.8 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.8 26.2 0.3 55.2 55.0 18.2 19.4 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.2 26.2 0.5 57.3 56.3 25.3 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.9 24.0 0.5 58.5 56.8 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 27.7 27.2 28.1 0.9 63.1 61.1 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 24.6 0.6 58.1 56.6 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.8 26.5 0.5 57.6 56.5 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.7 25.3 0.6 58.2 56.7 24.9 26.1 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.0 25.7 0.5 57.8 56.4 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.1 25.4 0.4 56.5 55.4 24.4 25.6 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.9 24.8 0.4 55.6 54.6 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.7 27.0 26.3 0.7 60.5 58.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 27.8 27.4 26.5 0.1 51.6 52.1 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.7 25.4 0.5 57.0 55.8 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 27.3 26.8 27.9 0.9 63.4 61.3 24.3 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.2 24.6 0.7 60.2 58.2 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.5 28.0 0.7 59.4 58.2 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 22.5 21.8 22.7 0.8 60.8 58.7 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.9 27.3 0.5 57.1 56.3 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 27.8 27.1 27.7 0.8 61.6 60.2 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.8 27.6 0.6 58.5 57.5 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.5 26.2 0.7 59.5 57.9 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.0 26.3 0.5 57.6 56.9 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.4 24.8 0.3 54.7 53.9 24.8 26.1 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.7 27.0 0.6 59.7 58.4 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.6 26.3 0.2 53.9 53.8 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.3 21.7 23.7 0.8 61.6 59.2 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.7 26.9 28.1 0.7 59.9 58.6 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------