***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.2 28.1 0.6 59.4 57.2 26.2 27.5 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.9 28.2 0.7 59.8 57.0 26.0 27.2 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.8 28.1 0.5 56.9 55.4 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 20.6 20.1 26.2 0.0 49.9 50.9 18.8 20.1 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.0 26.3 0.2 53.1 53.2 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.6 24.2 0.1 51.9 52.4 25.1 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.9 28.2 0.9 62.1 58.6 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.2 24.7 0.2 53.5 53.2 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 27.8 27.6 26.5 0.2 53.7 53.5 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.4 25.3 0.3 54.4 53.8 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 27.8 27.6 25.8 0.2 53.6 53.6 25.8 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.5 25.6 0.1 51.2 51.8 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.6 25.1 0.0 50.1 51.3 26.1 27.6 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 25.6 27.7 26.3 0.5 57.7 55.8 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.8 27.9 26.5 -0.4 43.7 46.3 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.3 25.6 0.1 51.8 52.4 26.6 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.4 27.9 0.8 60.4 57.3 25.3 26.6 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.8 24.6 0.4 56.8 55.2 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.4 28.1 0.6 58.1 55.9 25.6 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.8 22.7 0.5 57.2 55.8 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.7 27.4 0.3 54.2 53.9 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.7 27.7 0.6 58.5 56.0 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.6 27.7 0.5 56.7 55.1 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.3 27.3 26.2 0.5 56.7 55.2 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.9 27.9 26.4 0.4 55.3 54.5 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.1 25.0 -0.1 48.2 50.1 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.7 27.2 0.6 59.3 57.2 25.7 27.0 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.3 26.4 -0.2 47.0 48.8 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.4 23.7 0.5 57.9 56.2 20.2 21.7 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.8 28.3 0.7 59.8 57.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------