***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.6 26.6 0.1 52.7 52.2 25.7 26.5 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.6 26.8 0.3 57.2 55.7 25.5 26.2 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 25.3 26.1 26.5 -0.1 47.9 48.7 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 18.4 18.7 24.5 -0.4 37.0 40.5 18.5 19.3 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.7 26.2 24.6 -0.4 38.9 41.9 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 24.4 24.6 22.3 -0.5 33.7 38.2 24.6 25.3 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.5 26.9 0.5 61.4 58.9 25.2 26.0 26.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.1 22.7 -0.5 35.0 38.8 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 25.1 25.7 25.0 -0.3 40.7 43.2 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 25.1 25.5 23.5 -0.4 38.1 41.2 25.2 26.0 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 25.4 25.8 24.0 -0.5 36.8 40.4 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.5 24.7 23.6 -0.6 32.4 36.9 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.6 25.7 23.2 -0.7 31.2 36.2 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 25.1 26.0 24.9 -0.1 48.2 48.6 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 26.3 26.5 25.1 -0.6 32.6 36.7 26.6 27.2 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 26.1 26.4 23.8 -0.6 34.2 38.6 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.2 26.7 0.5 61.2 58.7 24.9 25.7 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 24.5 25.0 22.8 -0.3 41.2 43.5 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.9 26.7 0.2 53.7 53.0 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 20.1 20.5 20.8 -0.4 39.6 42.3 20.2 21.0 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 25.3 25.9 25.9 -0.3 42.4 44.5 25.4 26.3 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.5 26.5 0.3 57.6 56.0 25.3 26.1 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.4 26.1 26.3 0.0 49.9 50.0 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 24.8 25.4 24.6 -0.2 44.2 45.7 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.3 25.0 -0.1 46.7 47.8 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 25.2 25.3 22.9 -0.8 28.9 34.3 25.5 26.2 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.1 25.8 0.1 53.5 52.8 25.2 26.0 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.3 26.5 24.7 -0.6 32.7 37.1 26.6 27.3 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.3 21.9 -0.3 42.3 44.3 19.9 20.6 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.3 26.8 0.2 55.6 54.5 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------