***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 28.4 29.4 26.3 130.4 72.8 59.0 8.5 15.2 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.0 21.8 20.7 104.7 62.9 50.5 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 33.0 37.4 28.1 136.8 74.7 60.9 10.8 18.7 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 32.4 43.6 38.9 160.5 80.8 66.5 9.9 17.6 28.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 23.5 30.6 35.8 157.1 80.5 64.4 9.7 15.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 22.7 30.1 38.7 152.9 80.2 67.3 7.3 12.8 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 8.3 18.6 19.7 98.9 60.1 48.6 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 37.6 48.4 40.5 166.6 82.3 70.3 15.7 23.6 33.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 25.5 33.7 36.9 162.2 81.6 67.7 10.1 15.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 24.3 31.3 41.8 159.3 80.9 68.0 10.0 15.4 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 21.6 29.6 35.3 164.7 81.7 68.8 8.1 13.1 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 22.6 32.4 36.2 174.6 83.7 71.5 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 21.6 26.3 32.8 143.7 76.8 63.6 7.2 12.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.4 36.3 30.8 120.2 69.2 56.4 12.6 21.7 33.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.0 29.6 35.6 155.1 79.5 64.6 6.3 11.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 18.5 24.6 34.3 153.7 79.4 66.3 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 8.8 19.9 17.4 85.5 53.9 43.5 9.8 17.8 28.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 30.7 34.8 41.2 143.1 76.8 64.9 13.8 20.2 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.2 28.2 22.5 112.7 66.5 53.2 8.7 16.6 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 24.3 29.0 38.7 142.5 76.8 65.7 7.5 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 23.8 29.7 32.2 152.5 78.8 65.7 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.0 18.8 18.1 85.8 54.6 43.2 9.1 16.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.2 23.6 25.4 122.1 70.0 55.6 7.2 13.0 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 31.2 34.3 35.4 135.6 74.5 60.9 14.0 20.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 27.9 31.1 32.2 140.0 75.6 61.9 9.3 15.8 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 17.8 24.1 33.0 157.9 80.2 68.7 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 26.9 28.7 28.6 131.0 73.0 59.7 8.1 14.7 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.1 22.4 37.9 158.7 80.5 66.4 6.3 10.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 33.4 36.6 38.7 136.2 74.7 62.6 12.4 20.0 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.5 25.3 22.7 114.4 66.7 53.7 10.2 16.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------