***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 22.9 14.7 116.2 69.0 55.6 5.8 11.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.9 22.2 14.3 102.4 64.6 53.1 10.0 15.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.1 26.0 14.6 110.5 66.8 54.6 6.8 14.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.1 29.9 19.4 135.9 74.3 59.2 8.1 14.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 21.5 18.2 125.7 71.5 56.7 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 22.0 22.7 26.1 122.4 70.7 63.1 6.9 12.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.9 14.0 97.8 63.2 51.1 6.6 11.5 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 27.8 30.4 21.9 134.3 74.0 64.1 10.2 16.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.4 23.3 19.4 128.8 72.5 59.3 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 27.8 30.1 23.1 132.4 73.5 62.9 7.8 14.5 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.4 22.5 15.9 131.0 73.1 60.3 6.1 11.3 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 17.6 19.9 15.7 136.2 74.4 64.1 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 18.5 17.6 17.8 117.5 69.2 58.0 4.7 9.4 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.6 23.6 21.0 120.9 70.3 59.1 7.6 13.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 16.3 16.8 126.0 71.5 59.3 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.9 16.0 16.9 121.9 70.4 59.5 4.7 8.6 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.8 18.2 12.3 88.6 60.0 48.1 7.9 13.7 21.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 24.1 26.0 27.5 136.9 74.6 64.0 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.7 25.3 14.6 105.4 65.5 53.9 10.7 17.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 24.3 26.4 29.0 133.3 73.6 64.1 6.9 12.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.6 23.0 15.6 120.1 69.9 55.2 7.3 12.9 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.6 19.9 13.0 95.8 62.7 50.6 9.6 14.9 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.9 20.1 15.8 111.9 67.5 55.1 7.5 12.6 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.4 27.2 21.8 127.2 71.7 60.8 7.8 14.3 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.6 23.1 20.4 122.3 70.6 58.2 6.9 12.7 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.8 17.9 14.2 116.9 68.9 56.9 3.9 8.6 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.5 23.3 19.2 118.5 69.7 58.1 6.3 12.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.7 20.1 17.1 122.9 70.7 56.1 5.1 10.1 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 31.2 33.6 27.2 132.3 73.2 62.9 9.7 17.2 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.7 25.6 14.7 107.3 66.0 54.4 10.8 17.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------