***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 4.2 10.0 8.1 77.6 57.1 36.4 5.1 8.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 5.7 12.4 8.1 74.5 55.0 34.1 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 6.8 17.1 9.3 88.2 60.8 38.9 7.6 12.8 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.6 14.1 11.0 105.7 66.1 46.3 4.5 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.1 15.2 11.3 102.3 65.5 44.0 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.2 10.3 16.3 130.3 72.9 47.9 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 4.6 10.3 8.0 72.9 53.6 33.6 5.7 9.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 20.5 13.5 102.4 64.4 45.9 6.0 12.4 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.3 11.9 12.1 103.0 65.9 42.8 3.3 6.9 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.5 15.7 14.5 100.3 63.8 43.6 4.4 9.6 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.6 10.1 103.9 65.6 43.8 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.5 14.1 10.3 111.6 68.1 46.6 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.5 9.8 12.0 118.6 70.2 47.4 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.4 21.2 14.2 98.8 64.2 44.8 8.3 14.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.9 8.4 9.9 123.9 71.1 46.9 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.2 10.3 11.2 125.0 71.7 47.2 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 5.2 10.8 7.5 62.1 50.0 33.2 6.3 10.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.6 18.0 18.0 106.3 65.5 44.8 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 5.6 12.7 8.4 79.7 57.4 35.8 6.6 10.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 16.0 17.8 108.6 65.8 48.1 5.7 10.1 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.7 15.9 10.3 105.2 66.9 42.2 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.1 9.3 7.8 63.2 51.1 34.2 4.8 9.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 6.8 18.9 9.5 91.2 61.7 39.5 8.1 13.7 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.9 24.1 14.6 101.1 64.7 43.9 9.4 16.0 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.1 12.1 10.6 85.4 59.8 41.0 5.5 9.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.8 15.1 11.0 150.6 77.6 50.8 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.2 10.4 9.4 75.1 56.1 37.8 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.4 8.4 11.0 126.9 72.0 47.3 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.4 25.3 18.8 111.8 67.3 47.0 8.9 15.5 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 8.0 16.7 8.3 77.6 56.5 34.9 9.6 14.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------