***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 9999.0 11.9 12.8 -2.1 13.7 15.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 11.5 11.2 12.6 -2.2 14.2 15.6 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 13.1 12.8 12.7 -2.1 13.9 15.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 8.1 7.6 10.9 -1.9 12.8 14.9 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 10.5 10.1 11.1 -1.9 12.2 14.3 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 9.5 9.1 8.9 -1.8 10.5 13.0 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 11.9 11.7 12.6 -2.2 13.8 15.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 3.8 3.1 8.5 -2.3 8.7 11.2 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 11.5 11.1 11.5 -1.9 12.2 14.8 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 11.4 10.9 9.6 -2.1 10.0 12.8 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 11.2 10.8 10.5 -1.9 11.2 13.4 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 9.5 8.9 9.3 -2.2 8.5 10.6 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 10.8 10.6 9.9 -1.6 13.3 15.3 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 11.9 11.5 11.2 -2.2 11.9 14.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 12.5 12.4 12.7 -1.4 17.8 20.3 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 11.5 11.2 10.5 -1.7 12.5 14.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 12.1 11.9 12.4 -2.2 14.6 16.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 10.0 9.3 8.6 -2.2 9.4 12.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 11.9 11.6 12.6 -2.2 14.3 15.8 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 6.0 5.5 6.5 -2.1 9.7 12.1 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 11.4 11.1 12.5 -2.0 12.6 14.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 11.4 11.1 12.3 -2.3 13.2 14.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 11.4 11.2 12.5 -2.1 14.6 16.3 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 11.2 10.7 10.9 -2.1 12.0 14.6 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 11.6 11.3 11.9 -2.1 13.5 15.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 10.4 9.9 9.0 -2.0 9.2 11.3 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 11.3 11.0 12.3 -2.1 13.8 15.4 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 10.7 10.4 11.7 -1.7 14.4 16.8 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 8.2 7.7 8.0 -2.1 10.9 13.3 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 97 3 0 100 12.0 11.8 12.8 -2.2 13.9 15.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------