***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 13.7 15.5 -0.8 33.8 36.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.1 15.4 -1.0 29.3 32.2 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.0 15.4 -0.8 33.3 35.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.5 13.4 -1.1 27.1 30.2 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 11.9 11.9 13.3 -1.0 28.5 31.6 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.0 11.5 -0.9 30.1 32.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.4 -1.1 28.9 31.8 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.2 5.2 11.3 -1.1 26.4 29.7 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.6 -1.0 29.3 32.3 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 12.6 12.7 12.1 -1.0 28.3 31.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 12.8 12.9 12.9 -0.9 30.7 33.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 10.6 10.8 12.2 -1.0 28.8 31.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 12.2 12.5 11.8 -0.8 30.7 33.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.4 13.7 -1.0 28.9 32.0 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 13.8 13.9 14.1 -1.0 28.2 30.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.1 12.5 -0.9 30.6 33.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 13.7 13.7 15.2 -1.0 29.1 32.2 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 11.3 11.3 11.3 -1.1 26.8 30.4 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.4 13.4 15.4 -1.0 30.6 33.4 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 6.8 6.7 9.3 -1.3 22.6 26.7 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.7 -0.9 31.4 34.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.0 15.1 -1.0 29.0 32.1 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.0 15.2 -0.9 31.3 34.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.5 -0.9 30.2 33.4 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.0 -0.9 30.8 33.6 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.7 -1.1 25.8 28.8 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.6 13.0 14.7 -0.8 32.8 35.1 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 11.8 11.9 13.8 -1.0 27.8 30.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 9.1 9.1 10.6 -1.2 24.8 28.7 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.5 13.5 15.5 -1.0 30.5 33.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------