***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 9999.0 22.2 21.8 -2.9 15.0 16.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 22.2 22.0 21.7 -3.0 15.2 16.6 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 22.3 21.9 21.8 -3.0 15.3 17.1 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 15.4 15.0 19.6 -2.9 14.0 15.9 16.8 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 22.9 22.3 20.1 -3.2 12.6 14.6 24.5 25.9 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 22.1 21.7 18.0 -2.7 14.0 16.1 23.4 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 21.9 21.6 21.6 -3.0 14.6 16.0 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 11.2 10.8 18.1 -3.0 13.8 15.6 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 22.3 21.7 20.9 -3.1 13.4 15.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 22.1 21.6 19.1 -3.1 13.6 15.5 23.7 25.1 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 22.9 22.4 19.8 -3.0 13.2 15.3 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 22.1 21.7 19.1 -2.9 14.3 16.2 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 23.4 23.0 19.3 -2.8 14.4 16.6 24.7 25.9 27.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 22.1 21.6 20.3 -3.2 14.5 16.3 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 23.7 23.6 21.8 -2.4 17.7 19.6 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 23.9 23.4 19.7 -2.9 13.7 15.9 25.2 26.3 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 21.7 21.5 21.5 -3.0 15.8 17.2 23.4 25.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 21.5 21.1 18.1 -3.2 13.5 15.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 21.7 21.5 21.7 -3.0 15.5 17.0 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 17.3 16.9 16.1 -3.0 14.2 15.7 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 22.1 21.6 21.6 -3.1 13.7 15.7 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 22.3 22.1 21.5 -2.9 16.3 17.7 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 22.1 21.8 21.6 -3.0 15.6 17.4 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 21.7 21.2 20.1 -3.2 14.1 16.0 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 22.5 21.9 20.4 -3.1 12.9 14.8 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 23.0 22.7 18.6 -2.7 14.5 16.5 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 22.2 21.8 21.1 -3.0 13.7 15.6 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 23.6 23.3 20.6 -2.7 15.7 17.7 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 16.7 16.3 17.3 -3.2 13.8 15.5 18.3 19.7 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 22.2 21.8 21.9 -3.0 15.1 16.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------