***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 24.7 25.5 -1.4 29.6 33.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 24.2 24.1 25.2 -1.8 25.5 30.5 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.5 25.6 -1.4 30.4 34.6 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 17.5 18.0 24.2 -1.2 31.7 35.4 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 24.7 25.1 24.1 -1.2 32.2 35.9 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 23.8 24.8 22.4 -0.5 42.7 44.2 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 24.1 23.9 25.1 -1.8 25.0 30.2 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.9 22.6 -0.9 37.0 39.5 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 24.2 24.6 24.4 -1.3 31.9 35.8 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.4 24.9 23.1 -1.1 34.1 37.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.6 25.2 23.8 -1.0 35.5 38.7 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 24.1 24.8 23.7 -0.8 38.8 41.0 24.3 25.7 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.2 25.8 23.3 -0.7 40.1 42.1 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 24.2 24.4 23.9 -1.4 30.8 34.7 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 25.4 26.1 25.0 -1.0 34.2 37.5 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 25.3 26.2 23.7 -0.8 37.5 40.2 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 23.6 23.4 24.8 -1.9 23.4 29.1 24.4 25.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 23.7 24.2 22.3 -1.1 34.5 37.5 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 23.8 23.7 25.4 -1.7 27.2 31.8 24.3 25.9 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 19.4 20.0 20.4 -0.9 37.4 39.4 19.6 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 24.2 24.7 25.2 -1.3 31.4 35.4 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 23.8 23.8 24.9 -1.7 25.4 30.8 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 24.1 24.3 25.3 -1.5 29.2 33.5 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 23.9 24.3 23.9 -1.3 32.5 36.1 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 24.1 24.6 24.1 -1.4 29.7 33.8 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.8 25.6 23.4 -0.5 42.2 43.7 24.9 26.2 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 23.8 24.2 24.6 -1.5 28.9 33.2 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 25.2 26.0 24.7 -1.0 34.4 37.6 25.9 27.4 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 19.0 19.5 21.4 -1.0 36.0 38.5 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 24.0 24.1 25.4 -1.7 26.8 31.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------