***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 26.0 25.6 -1.3 31.4 35.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 25.9 25.8 25.3 -1.6 28.9 32.6 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.0 26.0 25.6 -1.3 31.3 35.3 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 18.6 18.6 24.2 -1.4 29.6 34.4 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 26.1 26.1 23.9 -1.5 29.3 34.0 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 24.8 25.3 22.2 -1.0 34.1 38.3 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 25.7 25.6 25.2 -1.6 28.6 32.3 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.3 22.2 -1.4 30.1 34.9 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 25.7 25.7 24.2 -1.4 29.5 34.1 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 25.4 25.4 22.8 -1.4 29.6 34.3 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 25.5 25.7 23.5 -1.3 30.9 35.6 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.7 25.0 23.4 -1.3 31.2 36.0 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 25.9 26.2 23.0 -1.2 32.3 36.8 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 25.6 25.6 23.6 -1.5 28.4 33.1 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.9 27.3 25.2 -1.1 32.9 37.2 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 26.5 26.7 23.5 -1.2 31.7 36.3 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 25.1 25.0 24.9 -1.7 26.9 30.6 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 24.7 24.8 21.9 -1.4 29.6 34.3 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 25.5 25.5 25.4 -1.5 29.8 33.5 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 20.3 20.6 19.9 -1.4 30.3 35.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 25.9 25.9 25.1 -1.4 30.4 34.8 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 25.7 25.7 25.0 -1.5 28.7 32.2 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 27.7 25.7 25.2 -1.4 30.1 34.1 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 25.2 25.3 23.6 -1.4 29.8 34.3 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 26.0 26.0 24.1 -1.4 30.2 34.5 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 25.6 25.8 23.0 -1.2 31.7 36.3 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.6 25.7 24.7 -1.3 30.9 35.0 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.3 24.7 -1.3 31.3 35.9 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.1 20.9 -1.4 30.1 34.7 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 25.8 25.7 25.5 -1.5 29.8 33.6 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------