***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 24.5 24.4 -1.9 13.1 18.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 24.9 24.3 24.2 -2.1 11.9 16.8 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 24.8 24.3 24.4 -1.9 13.4 18.7 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 18.0 17.4 22.7 -1.9 11.3 16.4 18.7 19.4 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 25.3 24.6 22.7 -2.0 10.7 15.8 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 24.2 23.9 20.8 -1.5 16.1 21.8 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 24.7 24.0 24.1 -2.1 11.2 16.1 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 13.6 13.0 21.0 -1.8 12.5 17.4 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 24.7 23.9 23.1 -2.0 11.3 16.5 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 24.7 24.1 21.7 -2.0 11.6 16.7 25.4 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 25.1 24.4 22.4 -1.8 12.3 17.4 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 24.3 23.8 22.1 -1.7 14.1 19.2 24.9 25.6 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 25.4 24.9 21.7 -1.6 15.1 20.6 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 24.7 24.0 22.7 -2.1 11.5 16.6 25.4 26.2 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 26.2 25.8 23.9 -1.6 15.4 20.7 26.7 27.4 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 25.9 25.2 22.2 -1.7 13.5 18.9 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 24.2 23.5 23.8 -2.2 10.7 15.6 25.0 25.8 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 24.1 23.5 20.8 -2.0 11.7 16.7 24.7 25.5 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 24.4 23.8 24.3 -2.1 12.7 17.7 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 19.6 19.1 18.8 -1.9 12.3 17.2 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 24.8 24.1 24.0 -2.0 11.9 17.3 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 24.6 23.9 23.9 -2.1 11.8 17.1 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 24.6 24.1 24.1 -2.0 13.0 18.2 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 24.3 23.7 22.6 -2.0 12.0 17.3 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 25.0 24.3 22.9 -2.0 11.0 16.4 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 25.1 24.7 21.6 -1.6 15.5 20.8 25.6 26.3 26.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 24.7 24.1 23.5 -2.0 11.8 17.2 25.4 26.1 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 26.2 25.6 23.3 -1.8 13.6 18.9 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 19.3 18.6 19.9 -1.9 12.0 17.0 20.0 20.8 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 24.7 24.1 24.4 -2.1 12.5 17.4 25.4 26.2 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------