***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 22.9 18.3 91.5 58.4 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 19.4 19.8 17.3 91.4 58.3 51.5 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 21.6 22.3 18.7 92.7 58.5 51.3 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.7 20.7 19.3 92.1 58.9 50.7 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.2 19.8 21.1 103.2 63.0 52.9 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.0 19.8 87.8 56.9 49.0 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.7 18.8 18.4 100.4 62.0 54.8 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 28.4 33.1 23.9 108.9 65.3 56.7 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.6 21.3 21.3 104.7 63.5 53.9 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.6 19.7 24.4 107.7 64.7 55.5 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 17.5 19.3 101.7 62.7 52.1 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.7 17.3 20.9 108.2 65.3 56.0 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 15.4 19.0 22.5 104.8 64.4 56.4 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.9 19.7 17.3 76.4 49.3 42.3 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 12.1 15.0 77.5 52.4 45.2 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.7 15.4 20.7 105.7 64.5 54.5 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.5 20.1 15.5 86.4 55.8 48.8 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.1 24.8 26.8 109.3 65.3 56.6 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.4 19.9 17.1 87.8 56.8 49.7 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 22.7 22.9 29.0 119.8 69.2 61.3 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.5 18.0 18.7 93.1 59.1 50.4 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.2 17.0 15.1 76.2 50.9 44.9 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.3 15.1 17.2 85.1 55.3 47.1 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.8 20.6 89.4 56.4 48.3 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 18.9 23.6 22.7 106.8 64.4 56.9 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.0 17.8 89.4 58.1 50.4 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 20.0 23.6 22.1 104.1 63.3 55.8 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 17.8 88.7 57.9 49.3 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.8 28.2 27.1 111.5 66.1 58.1 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.6 22.1 18.7 95.8 60.2 53.3 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------