***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 48.8 21.1 186.8 84.0 69.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 26.7 35.6 21.3 178.4 83.2 69.4 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 34.4 53.7 21.3 179.0 83.3 70.6 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 29.8 43.8 25.2 182.2 83.5 71.3 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 23.8 32.4 24.7 172.1 81.7 68.9 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 23.4 31.2 33.3 172.3 81.8 68.4 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 22.9 32.6 21.6 181.1 83.6 69.1 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 29.4 34.6 24.8 156.2 78.6 67.6 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 25.8 37.2 25.0 178.4 82.8 71.0 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 31.7 42.0 26.7 165.7 80.6 69.5 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 23.0 28.8 21.9 167.1 80.7 69.5 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 20.9 25.1 21.0 156.1 78.6 66.9 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 20.0 25.4 26.0 163.0 80.0 68.0 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 29.1 38.6 25.3 166.0 81.3 66.4 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 16.7 25.7 21.2 186.5 83.7 70.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 17.2 22.3 24.7 169.3 81.1 69.5 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 26.1 35.9 21.2 174.1 82.4 67.0 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 27.4 34.4 29.4 157.5 79.3 67.6 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 31.5 43.7 21.3 179.1 83.3 69.6 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 26.3 30.3 28.6 138.2 74.8 64.1 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 23.0 33.5 21.8 185.1 83.8 72.1 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 24.3 33.6 22.0 179.1 83.3 66.5 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.3 36.8 21.6 178.0 83.2 69.3 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 31.8 41.6 25.9 165.5 80.9 68.5 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 25.7 36.5 26.1 186.3 84.1 72.5 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 22.1 27.8 22.0 154.6 78.4 64.9 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 25.8 39.1 25.2 190.0 84.6 71.4 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 20.1 30.1 23.8 182.9 83.3 69.7 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 35.9 42.5 28.1 146.7 76.8 65.5 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 31.5 47.3 21.7 183.2 84.0 70.6 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------