***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 30.2 16.5 136.5 74.7 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 29.6 17.0 145.3 76.5 58.7 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.3 30.0 16.3 139.3 75.2 60.3 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.6 23.9 17.8 125.1 72.1 56.3 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.8 26.3 18.0 125.6 72.2 56.1 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.9 21.4 20.9 113.6 68.3 52.7 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.8 31.3 17.7 147.4 77.0 58.2 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.5 29.6 16.6 110.2 67.1 54.1 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 24.6 17.9 130.8 73.2 56.5 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 19.2 29.6 19.1 125.3 71.5 57.4 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.9 24.2 15.9 125.1 72.1 55.7 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.7 13.4 109.2 67.8 52.3 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.5 19.2 16.7 115.2 69.2 52.4 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 33.5 39.5 20.1 143.2 76.1 63.3 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 16.7 14.5 131.4 73.7 55.5 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 18.6 16.6 122.6 71.4 54.6 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.5 26.0 16.9 152.6 78.0 57.9 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 23.4 21.5 123.3 70.7 59.8 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.9 30.8 16.8 144.6 76.4 60.0 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 15.5 18.7 20.1 104.4 64.2 54.9 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.7 24.5 15.7 129.4 72.9 56.0 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.9 26.4 16.6 148.8 77.2 59.2 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 22.7 27.6 17.2 148.3 77.1 62.6 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 35.7 40.7 19.7 136.3 74.3 61.9 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.1 24.6 19.9 132.2 73.5 57.8 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.4 16.1 12.1 97.6 64.6 48.3 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 18.8 30.4 20.0 139.8 75.4 59.2 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.8 17.1 16.3 127.1 72.6 55.1 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.6 27.9 20.8 115.5 68.3 58.3 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.9 24.8 16.9 142.7 76.0 59.4 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------