***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 21.9 14.1 114.8 69.6 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.2 21.9 15.3 126.9 72.3 54.0 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.5 20.1 15.3 117.9 70.6 53.1 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 17.0 15.4 114.2 69.9 51.1 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.4 18.8 15.8 110.6 69.1 51.6 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 11.2 20.0 126.6 72.2 55.9 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 18.0 15.6 133.8 73.9 55.8 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.1 24.4 16.2 115.4 69.1 53.9 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.6 16.3 108.6 68.4 51.4 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 19.2 17.8 111.7 68.3 53.4 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.9 13.6 109.8 68.5 51.7 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.2 15.7 12.6 118.4 70.5 52.8 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.8 14.6 122.3 71.6 54.4 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.1 26.7 18.9 115.6 69.5 54.4 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 11.9 13.1 120.0 71.6 50.7 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.2 10.4 14.3 117.4 70.4 52.4 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.3 17.4 14.4 123.8 71.3 53.5 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 21.8 21.2 117.8 69.6 55.8 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.4 20.1 15.1 121.5 71.0 52.5 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 19.4 21.1 119.3 69.6 57.5 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.0 17.9 14.7 109.6 68.7 50.3 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.8 14.7 13.3 108.4 67.1 49.7 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.5 22.5 15.7 119.8 70.9 52.8 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.3 30.0 19.0 117.9 70.2 54.8 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.7 16.0 110.2 68.5 51.9 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.0 12.2 11.3 124.1 72.0 53.8 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 17.7 16.2 118.3 70.3 54.1 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.8 14.8 120.5 71.5 51.5 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 29.9 21.5 120.8 70.4 57.1 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.1 23.7 15.4 126.1 72.2 54.3 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------