***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 102.9 70.0 125.7 72.6 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 81.5 99.6 70.9 129.8 74.9 63.7 62.4 75.9 90.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 108.0 115.3 71.6 126.1 73.0 63.6 66.7 85.1 104.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 98.2 102.7 77.7 124.3 71.3 64.4 51.6 71.5 93.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 89.4 95.6 79.5 125.5 71.9 65.1 50.0 67.5 86.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 76.8 80.3 94.0 123.5 71.5 64.2 44.7 58.5 74.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 85.3 97.9 73.2 135.9 78.2 66.5 50.3 65.3 81.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 101.1 121.7 81.5 121.4 70.2 63.6 76.0 95.1 115.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 84.2 92.3 80.5 127.6 73.0 65.6 44.8 62.1 81.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 83.7 105.7 88.1 125.6 72.4 65.2 60.3 77.8 96.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 65.6 83.4 70.7 123.7 71.0 64.1 45.0 60.1 77.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 56.3 73.5 67.9 121.8 70.1 63.6 36.2 51.1 68.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 57.6 73.3 79.9 125.0 71.6 65.2 40.3 53.0 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 102.9 119.3 81.7 119.5 69.8 60.8 76.2 94.5 114.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 50.4 66.8 63.9 121.0 69.7 61.3 28.0 43.1 61.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 61.0 66.8 76.4 127.3 72.6 66.0 34.9 46.8 60.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 92.9 102.1 67.9 128.6 74.2 62.2 47.1 65.8 87.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 96.2 102.7 98.9 125.7 72.8 65.8 57.9 74.5 92.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 102.0 108.9 70.3 126.8 73.3 62.5 63.7 80.5 98.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 75.0 90.5 98.8 120.6 70.3 64.0 54.7 69.2 85.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 72.7 89.3 70.9 123.3 70.9 62.9 51.9 66.9 83.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 75.2 89.9 67.0 120.7 70.1 59.4 50.5 66.5 84.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 90.3 93.7 71.7 125.7 72.8 62.1 58.5 72.1 86.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 120.7 124.8 85.3 122.7 71.5 63.1 79.5 97.8 116.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 91.8 100.9 84.8 130.6 74.9 66.6 49.9 67.3 86.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 56.4 66.9 63.3 113.5 66.2 59.2 36.7 50.5 66.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 96.7 107.3 83.5 133.4 76.6 67.0 56.5 73.3 91.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 49.7 62.8 72.7 124.7 71.3 64.1 34.3 45.4 57.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 120.2 124.9 97.5 122.8 71.5 64.9 80.8 98.5 117.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 95.6 103.6 72.7 131.2 75.6 65.1 66.2 79.5 93.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------