***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 15.0 15.0 16.0 1.5 77.2 76.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 15.5 15.5 16.1 1.7 77.9 77.5 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 16.5 16.6 15.9 1.3 72.7 72.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 12.1 12.4 13.6 1.7 81.2 80.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 1.2 73.8 73.2 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 11.1 11.6 10.4 0.7 66.0 65.3 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 15.3 15.4 16.1 1.7 79.0 78.5 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 5.8 6.0 10.1 0.3 56.8 56.5 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.0 14.0 13.9 1.1 71.7 71.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 13.1 13.5 11.5 0.6 63.3 62.9 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 46 54 100 13.4 13.4 12.9 0.8 67.0 66.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 11.1 11.4 11.3 0.5 60.2 59.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 12.5 12.9 11.6 0.5 62.2 61.6 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.7 14.7 13.5 1.0 69.8 69.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 15.0 15.5 15.5 1.9 87.2 86.2 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 49 51 100 13.8 13.9 12.4 0.8 67.4 66.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 15.5 15.8 16.1 1.8 80.4 79.9 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 12.6 12.5 11.0 0.7 65.7 65.2 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 15.1 15.1 16.0 1.6 76.7 76.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 7.6 7.9 8.8 0.5 61.4 60.8 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.1 14.9 1.0 71.2 70.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 14.7 14.7 16.0 1.6 77.2 76.8 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 14.8 14.8 15.7 1.5 76.0 75.6 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.0 13.3 0.8 67.8 67.3 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 14.5 14.5 14.9 1.3 74.9 74.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 11.9 12.1 10.3 0.3 57.6 57.2 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 15.2 15.2 15.4 1.4 75.4 74.9 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 13.1 13.3 13.9 1.5 79.6 78.6 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 10.2 10.7 10.2 0.6 63.4 62.9 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 15.5 15.5 16.2 1.6 77.4 77.0 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------