***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.3 17.6 1.6 76.1 73.6 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.1 17.6 1.6 75.9 73.3 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.5 17.8 17.7 1.5 75.5 72.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 12.9 13.5 15.2 1.7 79.0 76.3 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 14.3 14.6 15.4 1.5 77.2 74.9 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.0 13.5 12.7 1.5 80.0 76.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.1 17.7 1.6 75.9 73.5 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 8.2 8.6 12.8 1.5 78.8 76.4 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 15.5 15.9 15.6 1.6 79.8 77.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 15.3 15.7 13.8 1.6 79.2 76.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 15.1 15.5 14.9 1.7 81.1 78.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 13.1 13.4 13.8 1.6 80.2 77.9 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 14.6 15.0 13.5 1.5 79.2 76.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.0 15.2 1.3 74.9 72.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 16.3 17.0 16.8 1.9 84.2 81.0 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 15.6 16.0 14.3 1.6 79.8 77.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.5 17.5 1.7 77.0 74.0 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 13.7 14.0 13.0 1.4 76.3 74.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 15.6 15.9 17.5 1.5 75.5 72.8 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 9.5 9.7 10.8 1.3 75.1 72.8 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.4 15.8 16.8 1.5 77.2 74.8 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 15.2 15.4 17.3 1.5 74.8 71.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.4 17.3 1.5 75.3 72.4 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 15.5 15.8 15.2 1.4 76.1 73.7 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.5 16.4 1.5 75.2 72.9 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 14.0 14.3 12.8 1.4 76.8 74.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 15.5 15.8 17.0 1.5 74.5 72.4 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 14.2 14.8 15.6 1.7 81.4 78.3 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 12.3 12.6 12.2 1.3 75.9 73.6 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.3 17.8 1.6 75.6 73.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------