***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 15.0 15.3 17.1 1.2 79.7 75.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 15.1 15.5 17.1 1.2 79.3 75.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.0 17.2 1.1 78.1 74.1 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 12.0 12.6 14.8 1.3 83.9 79.4 10.4 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 13.4 13.7 14.7 1.0 78.6 74.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.7 12.3 0.9 79.5 75.4 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 15.2 15.4 17.2 1.2 79.1 74.9 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.5 12.0 0.8 73.9 70.6 6.2 6.7 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.6 14.8 14.9 0.9 78.2 74.7 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.5 13.1 0.8 75.2 71.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.5 14.1 0.9 78.6 74.7 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 12.3 12.5 13.0 0.9 77.1 73.6 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.0 12.8 0.8 76.1 72.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.4 14.7 0.8 74.9 71.3 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 15.8 16.4 16.4 1.4 88.4 83.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.0 13.6 0.9 79.2 75.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 15.5 15.9 17.0 1.3 81.0 76.3 14.2 14.8 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.3 12.3 0.8 74.3 71.2 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 14.9 15.2 17.1 1.1 79.1 74.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 8.8 9.0 10.1 0.7 71.9 69.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.7 16.2 1.0 77.6 73.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.9 16.9 1.2 79.1 74.7 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.7 16.8 1.1 78.9 74.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 14.8 15.1 14.5 0.8 75.4 72.0 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 14.5 14.7 15.8 1.1 78.9 74.9 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.4 12.2 0.8 76.1 72.8 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 14.5 14.8 16.5 1.1 79.1 75.2 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 13.6 14.1 15.1 1.2 84.9 80.4 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.6 11.6 0.7 72.5 69.4 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.6 17.3 1.2 78.9 74.8 14.0 14.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------