***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 25.4 26.5 25.4 1.1 65.4 65.0 23.5 25.1 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 25.6 26.4 25.5 0.9 61.3 61.1 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 25.7 26.6 25.4 1.0 63.4 63.0 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 18.3 19.2 21.9 0.9 65.0 64.1 16.8 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 26.1 26.9 23.3 0.9 63.7 62.9 24.5 25.9 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 24.7 25.0 20.3 0.5 58.1 57.3 23.4 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 25.3 26.1 25.5 1.0 62.8 62.6 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 13.9 14.3 20.7 0.6 58.8 58.1 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 25.4 26.5 24.4 1.1 66.1 65.2 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 25.3 26.0 22.1 0.8 62.2 61.4 23.7 25.1 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 26.0 26.7 23.5 0.8 63.0 62.0 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 24.8 25.4 21.9 0.7 62.0 60.9 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 26.0 26.5 22.6 0.6 60.1 59.0 24.7 25.9 27.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 25.5 26.4 24.2 1.0 63.5 63.0 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 26.3 27.2 24.6 0.9 65.7 64.7 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 26.6 27.2 22.7 0.8 62.1 61.0 25.2 26.3 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 25.1 26.1 25.4 1.0 63.0 62.8 23.4 25.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 24.7 25.3 21.1 0.7 59.9 59.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 25.1 26.0 25.5 0.9 62.0 61.7 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 20.3 20.5 18.7 0.4 55.5 55.1 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 25.6 26.6 25.2 1.0 64.8 64.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 25.7 26.6 25.4 1.0 63.3 63.1 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 25.5 26.5 25.4 1.0 63.5 63.2 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 25.0 25.8 23.8 0.9 62.3 61.6 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 25.7 26.7 24.2 1.1 66.1 65.6 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 25.6 25.9 20.8 0.5 58.2 57.2 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 26.5 26.5 24.9 1.2 66.4 66.0 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 26.3 27.0 22.9 0.8 63.5 62.4 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 19.9 20.4 20.4 0.6 58.9 58.3 18.3 19.7 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 25.4 26.3 25.5 0.9 61.9 61.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------