***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 27.3 28.1 27.3 1.0 63.7 61.9 25.4 26.9 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.8 27.2 27.3 0.8 60.0 58.6 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 26.8 27.2 27.3 0.8 60.4 59.2 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 20.1 20.8 24.4 0.9 62.9 61.2 18.4 19.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.7 25.2 0.7 60.0 58.8 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.7 26.3 22.7 0.9 62.7 60.9 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 26.4 27.0 27.5 1.0 63.0 61.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.5 22.9 0.5 56.8 55.9 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.7 27.1 25.9 0.8 60.3 59.1 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 26.5 26.7 23.9 0.6 57.9 57.0 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 27.0 27.4 25.2 0.7 60.0 58.6 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 26.0 26.5 24.2 0.8 60.9 59.2 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 27.1 27.8 24.5 1.0 63.3 61.3 25.3 26.7 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 26.5 26.6 25.4 0.6 57.1 56.5 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 27.9 28.7 26.5 1.1 66.1 63.8 26.3 27.6 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 27.8 28.5 24.8 1.0 63.4 61.4 25.9 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 26.1 26.7 27.3 1.0 63.1 61.0 24.2 25.6 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.1 23.2 0.6 57.4 56.7 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.5 27.2 0.7 59.3 58.0 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 21.6 21.6 20.8 0.4 55.6 54.9 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 26.8 27.3 26.8 0.8 60.2 59.0 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.6 27.0 27.0 0.8 60.7 59.1 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.0 27.1 0.8 59.9 58.5 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.4 25.3 0.6 57.8 57.1 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.8 25.9 1.0 63.5 61.8 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 26.6 27.5 23.8 1.1 65.6 63.3 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 27.6 27.5 26.7 1.2 65.8 63.7 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 28.0 28.6 25.1 0.9 63.5 61.6 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.4 22.4 0.5 57.0 56.3 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 26.5 26.9 27.3 0.8 60.7 59.3 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------