***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.1 28.1 27.8 0.6 57.5 55.4 26.3 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.9 27.8 0.5 57.3 55.0 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.1 28.2 0.7 59.3 56.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.7 21.0 26.3 0.9 62.2 57.9 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.5 26.4 0.7 59.2 56.3 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 28.0 27.6 24.3 1.0 63.6 59.1 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.7 27.9 0.6 57.7 55.2 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.6 24.6 0.7 58.6 56.1 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.1 26.6 0.7 59.9 56.6 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.8 25.3 0.7 59.4 56.4 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 27.9 28.2 26.2 0.8 61.1 57.5 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.0 27.4 26.1 1.0 62.5 58.4 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.6 25.3 0.9 61.9 57.9 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.7 27.5 25.8 0.4 55.7 54.4 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.9 29.4 27.6 1.1 65.6 59.6 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.4 26.1 1.1 64.1 59.2 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.2 27.4 27.9 0.7 59.6 56.3 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 26.9 27.0 24.6 0.7 59.0 56.4 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.4 27.4 27.9 0.6 57.6 55.3 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.6 22.0 0.4 55.1 54.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.1 27.4 0.6 58.3 55.9 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.8 27.5 0.6 58.2 55.5 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 27.7 27.8 27.9 0.6 58.6 56.2 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.3 27.4 26.0 0.6 58.4 56.0 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 28.1 28.0 26.2 0.5 56.7 55.0 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.8 28.7 26.1 1.4 68.2 62.0 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.6 27.0 0.6 57.9 55.6 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.0 29.6 26.8 1.1 65.1 59.6 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.3 23.5 0.5 57.2 55.5 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.7 27.9 0.5 57.2 55.0 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------