***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.4 27.0 0.9 67.5 64.4 25.9 26.6 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.0 27.0 0.7 63.3 60.9 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 27.3 27.2 27.2 0.8 66.4 63.3 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 20.2 20.3 24.6 0.9 70.6 66.3 18.7 19.4 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 27.6 27.6 25.2 0.8 67.1 63.5 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 26.2 26.3 22.8 0.8 69.9 65.4 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 26.9 26.8 27.1 0.8 65.6 62.8 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.4 23.0 0.6 62.8 59.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 27.1 27.2 25.8 0.9 68.3 64.3 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.4 26.8 24.0 0.7 65.3 61.7 25.4 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.4 25.2 0.8 68.4 64.2 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 26.3 26.4 24.4 0.9 68.9 64.3 24.9 25.6 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 27.5 27.6 24.3 0.9 69.2 64.7 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.8 25.2 0.6 62.9 60.5 25.4 26.2 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 28.1 28.4 26.4 1.1 74.1 69.2 26.7 27.4 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 28.2 28.4 24.8 1.0 71.6 66.6 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 26.7 26.6 27.0 0.9 66.5 63.4 25.0 25.8 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.8 26.1 23.3 0.6 64.0 60.8 24.7 25.5 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.5 27.0 0.7 63.4 61.1 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.5 20.7 0.3 57.8 55.9 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.2 26.6 0.8 66.8 63.4 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 26.5 27.0 26.7 0.8 64.8 62.3 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 27.0 26.9 26.9 0.8 65.2 62.4 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 26.6 26.5 25.2 0.7 64.9 61.8 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.4 25.6 0.8 67.8 64.5 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.3 24.0 1.1 73.8 68.2 25.6 26.3 26.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 27.0 27.0 26.3 0.9 69.3 66.0 25.4 26.1 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 28.2 28.4 25.3 1.0 72.2 67.5 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.3 22.3 0.5 61.9 59.2 20.0 20.8 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 27.0 26.8 27.0 0.7 64.0 61.5 25.4 26.2 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------