***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 19.8 21.3 17.4 93.7 59.1 52.4 8.9 16.2 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 18.9 23.9 17.5 108.7 65.3 59.7 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 20.9 24.8 17.7 101.3 62.2 54.6 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 28.6 29.9 25.2 125.4 71.1 66.0 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 16.6 21.9 21.8 113.7 66.9 58.4 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 24.2 26.5 31.2 138.5 75.4 70.2 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.1 22.1 18.8 115.5 68.1 63.1 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 28.0 34.6 30.7 116.8 67.5 59.4 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 18.2 22.6 21.9 111.6 65.9 55.7 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 22.3 31.3 121.8 69.9 60.0 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 14.7 20.5 23.3 116.5 68.0 58.7 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.4 16.9 23.0 108.9 64.5 57.4 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.0 18.3 20.9 105.7 63.1 54.7 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 24.0 32.4 27.6 116.5 67.7 60.4 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 22.3 27.9 26.9 151.1 77.9 71.9 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.4 17.1 21.7 116.4 67.6 59.1 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 29.3 31.4 19.8 123.5 70.7 66.9 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 20.7 26.4 31.5 118.3 68.5 60.5 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 19.7 24.9 17.5 105.1 64.0 57.4 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 16.4 22.4 32.0 118.3 68.4 61.6 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.1 19.5 19.0 101.7 61.9 53.1 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 28.5 29.7 20.2 123.9 70.8 65.3 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.8 20.6 19.0 109.4 65.5 57.8 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.8 27.4 24.9 111.6 65.9 57.9 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 18.5 25.2 22.3 112.7 66.6 58.6 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.6 19.2 24.7 133.9 73.1 64.9 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 19.3 26.1 22.1 113.9 66.5 59.5 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 17.9 20.4 28.8 142.5 75.7 69.8 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 22.3 30.0 30.8 118.9 68.7 62.3 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 20.0 25.2 18.1 109.9 65.8 59.8 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------