***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.9 22.5 19.4 120.7 70.2 56.4 5.7 11.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 25.2 26.9 18.9 128.7 72.4 60.5 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 22.6 31.9 19.7 116.3 68.2 56.2 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.8 38.0 25.8 158.9 79.2 65.3 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.2 28.1 24.8 150.6 77.6 62.1 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 14.6 24.2 26.4 135.3 74.0 59.4 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 20.7 16.5 113.9 68.0 53.1 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.5 29.3 22.6 128.2 72.3 57.9 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 24.1 30.9 26.5 150.5 77.6 62.7 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 20.8 33.2 24.2 133.1 73.5 58.1 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.1 22.2 21.7 128.6 72.0 56.3 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.7 21.1 20.6 131.1 73.0 58.5 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.5 21.7 24.5 140.4 75.3 61.0 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.0 29.1 24.7 127.0 71.8 58.1 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 22.4 23.0 164.6 80.2 61.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.2 18.2 22.9 138.0 74.8 59.0 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 18.2 26.2 18.0 128.4 72.3 57.3 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.9 30.5 28.0 141.4 75.4 62.5 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 29.9 34.3 20.5 139.4 75.2 63.0 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.7 26.4 24.3 121.4 70.3 58.0 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.6 25.6 24.2 140.5 75.4 61.3 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 24.0 26.3 19.1 136.2 74.4 57.6 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 16.3 30.4 23.0 148.9 77.4 65.0 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 21.4 36.9 27.7 148.0 77.0 64.6 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 18.3 24.5 21.4 118.4 69.4 55.4 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.6 17.3 17.2 113.9 65.9 50.5 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.3 22.6 20.4 115.6 68.2 54.6 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.8 24.2 23.0 150.4 77.4 61.3 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.5 36.0 27.0 125.7 70.8 57.6 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.5 29.5 18.0 119.3 69.5 56.3 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------