***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.3 20.8 18.0 111.0 67.5 48.8 5.9 11.5 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.4 20.9 15.1 103.7 65.4 46.2 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.0 24.1 18.6 115.8 68.9 50.5 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.0 22.2 16.3 120.2 70.2 51.2 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.7 25.9 16.4 125.8 71.7 50.3 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 19.9 17.3 109.0 66.2 48.2 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 7.2 19.8 13.8 92.6 61.9 42.9 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.8 33.4 18.4 121.9 70.6 50.9 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.6 24.0 18.8 129.2 72.5 52.2 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.7 28.8 20.3 122.4 70.7 50.4 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.6 22.6 14.0 120.5 70.3 47.2 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 17.2 14.9 127.7 72.2 51.3 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.4 21.1 16.1 126.4 71.9 52.1 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.6 31.2 24.3 115.5 68.6 50.6 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.4 13.8 13.2 112.6 68.7 47.9 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 18.7 14.8 124.8 71.5 50.4 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.2 17.0 14.0 97.7 64.0 44.2 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 25.1 24.8 129.6 72.6 54.7 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.0 22.3 16.1 108.5 66.8 47.2 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.4 21.6 21.5 120.1 69.5 53.5 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.4 22.8 18.4 122.3 70.8 50.6 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.2 18.0 15.5 101.8 65.0 44.9 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.9 21.3 17.5 113.0 68.2 48.1 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.8 38.6 23.8 129.4 72.6 53.7 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.0 20.9 18.7 114.7 68.7 50.0 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.2 20.4 13.6 126.9 71.9 48.5 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.1 23.4 18.2 106.7 66.0 48.7 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.7 15.2 14.7 116.1 69.1 49.0 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 31.3 24.6 126.2 71.5 54.3 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.9 17.3 15.5 102.2 64.8 45.4 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------