***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.8 12.4 14.3 95.4 62.9 44.9 5.2 8.7 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 8.1 15.3 10.3 76.9 56.1 42.2 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.3 16.0 13.2 89.7 61.0 44.9 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.2 13.4 12.8 91.6 61.9 43.7 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.8 14.1 12.5 86.7 60.1 44.0 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.3 14.4 86.2 58.7 45.6 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.6 11.5 10.5 77.5 56.4 42.0 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.9 15.1 13.0 76.3 54.4 43.3 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.0 13.7 85.9 59.3 44.3 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.3 12.8 14.6 78.4 55.1 43.3 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.3 10.5 78.0 56.0 42.4 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.5 10.3 76.9 55.5 42.4 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.4 11.1 78.4 56.3 42.3 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.5 19.3 16.6 83.1 57.0 44.9 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.2 8.6 10.8 93.0 63.0 40.7 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.0 10.8 79.8 57.1 42.2 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.6 11.0 10.3 77.7 56.1 41.5 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.7 16.5 79.3 55.4 45.1 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.6 14.0 10.8 78.8 56.9 42.7 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.2 12.8 15.2 78.4 54.1 45.6 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.9 14.3 13.4 89.3 60.9 45.4 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.0 10.6 10.7 75.7 55.3 42.2 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 7.3 15.6 11.3 78.7 56.4 42.4 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.4 21.8 15.1 82.3 57.1 44.9 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.0 14.1 14.3 92.5 61.8 44.5 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.5 9.1 79.0 57.9 43.5 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.6 14.5 14.9 96.1 63.0 45.1 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.6 12.0 89.4 61.5 42.4 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.0 19.8 16.4 78.4 54.4 45.2 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.7 16.6 11.2 80.2 57.5 43.3 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------