***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 75.3 79.4 69.1 104.9 60.9 52.4 52.5 68.0 85.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 82.6 85.4 61.8 105.2 61.1 54.3 62.4 75.9 90.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 94.4 98.7 69.2 106.1 61.5 54.4 66.7 85.1 104.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 79.6 104.6 80.2 125.3 72.2 63.3 51.6 71.5 93.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 74.5 91.9 75.5 119.7 69.5 59.2 50.0 67.5 86.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 64.1 79.0 89.3 120.2 70.3 61.0 44.7 58.5 74.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 49.4 72.8 59.6 100.7 58.0 51.3 50.3 65.3 81.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 104.2 114.1 84.7 111.8 65.3 56.6 76.0 95.1 115.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 70.8 86.7 80.8 119.5 69.6 59.5 44.8 62.1 81.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 86.3 97.9 90.4 114.7 67.0 58.1 60.3 77.8 96.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 68.0 76.5 69.6 112.4 65.4 56.1 45.0 60.1 77.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 59.1 66.8 68.8 111.1 64.8 55.6 36.2 51.1 68.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 59.3 67.1 72.5 113.1 66.0 54.9 40.3 53.0 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 75.0 112.0 93.2 110.9 64.6 56.2 76.2 94.5 114.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 66.0 75.7 73.9 134.2 75.0 66.2 28.0 43.1 61.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 52.7 61.4 70.2 115.7 67.5 57.1 34.9 46.8 60.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 75.5 82.5 62.1 107.8 62.7 55.5 47.1 65.8 87.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 98.0 96.7 100.8 117.0 68.8 59.9 57.9 74.5 92.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 89.5 95.1 65.0 108.4 63.1 55.4 63.7 80.5 98.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 76.3 84.2 93.0 110.6 64.8 57.4 54.7 69.2 85.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 73.7 83.3 75.1 113.7 66.2 57.0 51.9 66.9 83.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 74.1 81.7 65.5 109.7 63.9 56.2 50.5 66.5 84.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 57.9 86.1 71.0 113.1 65.9 56.6 58.5 72.1 86.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 106.6 121.0 91.4 117.8 69.0 59.6 79.5 97.8 116.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 76.0 84.3 76.7 110.2 64.1 55.1 49.9 67.3 86.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 57.4 68.1 64.7 115.2 67.3 57.0 36.7 50.5 66.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 81.0 87.9 75.6 108.4 63.1 54.6 56.5 73.3 91.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 49.9 64.8 78.4 127.8 73.2 64.9 34.3 45.4 57.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 107.1 117.4 98.9 112.7 66.1 58.1 80.8 98.5 117.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 65.4 87.9 62.8 103.5 59.9 52.8 66.2 79.5 93.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------