***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.0 17.6 1.4 74.4 70.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.7 17.4 1.4 73.2 70.1 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.4 17.6 1.3 73.6 70.5 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 12.2 12.4 14.6 1.0 68.4 65.8 9.9 11.1 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.2 15.2 1.1 71.4 68.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.0 12.4 1.0 71.6 68.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.7 17.5 1.3 72.6 69.5 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 7.7 7.7 12.2 0.9 67.9 65.9 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.5 15.4 1.2 74.0 70.7 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.0 13.4 1.0 69.3 66.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.0 14.6 1.1 72.9 69.9 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.8 12.8 13.2 1.0 69.5 67.3 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.4 13.3 1.0 71.9 68.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.8 15.2 1.2 73.4 70.3 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.3 16.2 1.1 73.3 69.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.4 14.0 1.0 70.8 68.0 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.0 17.2 1.3 72.9 69.8 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 13.4 13.4 12.6 0.8 67.1 65.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.7 17.5 1.5 75.2 72.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 9.1 9.0 10.4 0.7 64.7 63.2 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.5 16.7 1.2 73.3 70.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.0 15.3 17.4 1.5 75.8 72.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.5 17.5 1.7 78.1 74.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.4 15.0 1.1 71.5 68.8 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.2 16.3 1.2 71.6 68.4 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.9 12.6 1.0 71.3 68.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.4 16.9 1.3 72.5 69.3 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 14.0 14.1 15.0 1.0 69.5 66.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 11.8 11.8 11.8 0.8 67.2 65.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.9 17.6 1.4 73.3 70.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------