***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.5 16.0 17.8 1.6 78.1 70.6 14.0 14.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.5 16.0 17.7 1.5 76.9 69.7 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.9 18.0 1.5 78.9 71.3 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 12.7 13.2 15.0 1.2 74.8 69.2 10.2 11.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.8 14.3 15.1 1.3 76.7 70.3 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.2 12.8 1.0 73.7 67.8 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.6 16.0 17.8 1.6 77.3 70.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 8.2 8.4 12.5 0.9 70.8 65.4 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.7 15.4 1.3 77.8 71.1 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.2 13.6 1.1 73.6 67.7 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.3 14.4 1.2 75.2 68.9 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.0 13.3 1.0 72.0 66.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.3 12.9 0.9 70.7 66.4 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 15.6 16.0 15.2 1.2 74.3 68.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.6 16.4 1.3 76.0 70.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.5 13.8 1.1 73.9 68.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.6 17.7 1.6 77.7 70.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.9 12.7 1.0 73.6 67.9 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.9 17.8 1.6 78.3 70.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 9.3 9.3 10.3 0.8 67.9 63.7 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.4 16.8 1.4 77.9 70.8 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.7 17.5 1.7 79.3 71.3 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.3 17.6 1.7 80.6 72.6 13.0 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.4 16.0 15.1 1.3 77.0 70.3 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 14.7 15.1 16.2 1.4 76.6 69.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.0 12.7 1.1 73.4 68.2 12.2 13.0 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 14.6 15.1 17.0 1.5 77.1 70.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.3 15.3 1.1 73.8 68.4 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.5 12.0 0.9 72.0 66.8 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.6 16.1 17.9 1.5 77.1 70.0 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------