***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.3 17.9 1.3 77.0 68.6 14.2 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.2 17.8 1.2 73.3 65.7 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 17.9 18.4 18.2 1.4 78.3 69.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 1.1 73.7 65.9 10.7 11.8 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.6 15.4 1.2 75.1 67.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.6 13.3 1.1 74.9 67.2 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.2 17.9 1.2 73.8 66.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 8.7 8.7 12.8 0.8 69.0 63.6 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.6 15.9 15.6 1.2 76.1 68.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.5 13.8 0.9 71.2 65.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.5 14.7 1.1 74.0 66.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.4 13.6 0.9 70.5 64.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 14.8 14.7 13.2 0.9 70.3 65.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.4 15.3 0.9 70.2 63.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.0 16.7 1.2 77.0 68.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 15.8 15.9 14.2 1.1 73.7 66.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.6 17.6 1.1 71.6 64.4 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.2 12.9 0.8 68.9 63.8 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.2 17.9 1.3 75.7 67.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 10.1 9.8 10.5 0.6 65.1 61.5 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 15.5 15.8 17.0 1.2 76.4 68.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.7 17.5 1.2 74.2 66.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 15.5 16.1 17.9 1.4 79.3 69.5 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 16.0 16.1 15.2 1.0 73.0 65.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.6 16.3 1.1 73.5 66.2 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.7 13.1 1.1 74.2 67.6 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.8 17.0 1.2 74.9 67.0 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.6 15.6 1.1 74.7 66.7 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.7 12.2 0.7 67.1 62.6 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.5 18.0 1.3 75.2 67.1 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------