***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 15.3 16.0 18.0 2.0 93.6 90.4 14.2 14.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 15.4 16.3 17.8 1.9 90.7 87.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 17.1 18.2 18.1 2.0 93.6 90.2 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 12.3 13.2 15.1 1.6 90.5 87.0 10.5 11.2 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 13.8 14.6 15.5 1.8 93.5 90.2 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 12.7 13.6 12.9 1.5 93.5 89.3 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 15.4 16.1 17.8 1.8 90.2 86.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 7.7 8.2 12.5 1.3 86.9 83.3 6.3 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 14.9 15.8 15.8 1.8 94.5 91.5 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 14.7 15.2 13.7 1.4 89.1 85.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 14.6 15.3 14.8 1.6 92.2 88.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 12.6 13.2 13.5 1.4 88.8 85.4 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 14.1 14.9 13.4 1.5 92.4 89.0 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 15.5 16.4 15.5 1.7 91.5 88.2 14.1 14.6 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 16.0 16.9 16.6 1.7 93.5 89.5 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 15.1 15.9 14.2 1.6 92.3 88.8 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 15.7 16.5 17.6 1.8 90.1 86.5 14.3 14.9 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 13.5 14.1 12.9 1.4 88.7 85.6 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 15.2 16.1 17.9 2.0 92.5 89.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 9.2 9.6 10.5 1.1 85.5 82.3 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 14.8 15.7 17.1 1.9 94.1 90.8 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 14.8 15.7 17.7 2.0 92.4 88.7 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 14.7 15.7 17.9 2.2 95.1 91.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 15.2 16.3 15.3 1.7 92.3 89.1 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 14.8 15.5 16.5 1.8 92.0 88.7 13.5 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 13.6 14.5 13.0 1.6 94.4 91.1 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 14.8 15.6 17.2 1.9 92.6 89.3 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 13.9 14.6 15.4 1.6 91.7 87.9 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 11.8 12.4 12.1 1.3 87.0 83.8 10.4 10.9 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 15.6 16.4 18.0 1.9 91.3 87.9 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------