***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 28.2 30.2 28.6 3.8 89.3 85.5 23.9 25.5 27.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 28.0 29.4 28.6 3.4 85.0 81.4 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 28.2 29.9 28.7 3.8 88.2 84.4 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 20.5 22.0 24.6 3.2 87.0 81.9 17.1 18.5 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 28.4 30.2 26.5 3.6 88.9 84.2 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 26.7 28.1 23.2 3.1 87.5 83.4 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 27.5 28.7 28.3 3.2 83.6 80.3 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.9 23.4 2.9 84.5 80.7 12.7 13.9 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 27.9 29.9 27.7 3.8 90.4 85.7 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 27.6 29.1 25.1 3.4 87.1 82.7 23.9 25.4 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 28.2 29.8 26.7 3.5 88.3 83.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 26.8 28.1 24.7 3.2 87.0 82.9 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 28.2 29.6 25.7 3.3 88.5 84.6 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 28.0 29.4 27.0 3.4 85.7 81.9 23.9 25.5 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 28.2 29.6 27.1 3.0 86.4 81.3 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 28.7 30.1 25.8 3.4 88.4 84.1 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 27.6 29.0 28.4 3.5 85.4 82.1 23.7 25.2 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 27.0 28.1 23.9 3.0 84.2 80.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 27.6 29.3 28.9 3.8 87.6 84.0 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 22.3 23.1 21.2 2.5 80.7 77.7 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 28.1 30.0 28.4 3.7 89.0 84.7 24.1 25.7 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 28.2 30.0 28.7 3.9 88.4 85.1 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 28.1 30.5 29.3 4.5 91.6 87.8 24.0 25.6 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 27.5 28.9 26.9 3.5 86.5 82.7 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 28.0 29.6 27.1 3.5 87.7 83.5 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 27.6 29.2 24.1 3.5 90.3 86.3 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 27.6 29.1 27.6 3.4 86.6 82.9 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 28.3 29.7 25.5 3.1 87.0 81.8 25.2 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 22.2 23.1 22.9 2.7 82.1 78.7 18.5 20.0 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 27.9 29.2 28.6 3.4 85.4 82.0 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------