***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 28.3 28.4 27.5 1.5 69.9 66.1 25.3 26.7 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 27.5 27.5 27.5 1.4 67.6 64.8 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 27.6 27.5 27.5 1.3 66.7 63.7 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 20.0 20.4 24.1 0.8 61.0 59.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 27.1 27.7 25.3 1.0 63.0 60.6 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 25.7 25.7 22.3 0.5 56.4 55.7 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 27.2 27.1 27.4 1.4 67.1 64.6 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.2 22.6 0.4 55.6 54.8 13.3 14.8 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.4 27.2 26.0 1.1 64.2 61.7 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.6 23.8 0.7 59.0 57.5 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 26.8 27.3 25.1 0.8 60.9 59.3 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 25.9 26.1 23.8 0.6 58.0 56.8 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.2 24.0 0.6 57.8 56.8 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 26.2 26.6 25.4 0.9 60.9 59.3 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 28.8 28.3 26.1 0.9 63.3 60.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 27.6 27.9 24.5 0.7 59.5 58.2 25.7 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 27.0 27.1 27.5 1.6 70.3 66.9 24.0 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.8 22.8 0.4 55.8 54.9 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 26.9 27.1 27.7 1.5 69.1 65.9 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.0 20.1 0.0 50.7 50.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.4 26.9 1.1 64.5 61.9 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.4 27.7 27.4 1.7 71.6 67.9 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.8 27.7 1.7 71.6 67.7 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 25.9 26.3 25.3 0.8 60.5 58.9 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 27.8 27.8 25.9 1.2 66.4 63.6 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 26.7 27.1 23.3 0.8 61.5 59.7 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.3 26.6 1.4 67.8 64.6 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.2 24.8 0.7 59.9 58.1 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.9 21.8 0.3 53.3 52.9 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 27.2 27.2 27.5 1.4 67.0 64.3 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------