***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 28.8 29.7 28.5 2.3 78.6 69.7 25.8 27.2 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 28.2 29.1 28.4 2.3 76.9 69.3 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 28.3 29.2 28.7 2.3 77.6 69.2 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 21.5 21.9 25.9 1.7 73.3 65.4 18.2 19.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 28.7 29.3 26.4 1.9 73.8 65.9 25.3 26.9 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 27.2 27.2 23.3 1.3 68.2 61.8 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 28.2 28.9 28.3 2.2 76.1 68.8 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.8 24.0 1.4 68.5 62.0 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.9 26.7 2.0 74.9 66.9 24.8 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 28.0 28.3 25.0 1.7 71.3 64.1 24.8 26.4 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 28.4 28.8 25.8 1.8 72.6 64.8 25.1 26.6 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 27.4 27.5 25.2 1.5 69.8 62.7 24.4 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.4 28.4 24.3 1.4 68.0 61.5 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.5 26.1 1.8 71.7 65.4 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 29.5 30.2 27.0 1.9 76.5 67.9 26.2 27.7 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.4 25.3 1.6 71.1 63.6 25.8 27.4 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.7 28.4 2.4 77.8 70.4 24.5 26.0 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.5 24.3 1.5 69.2 62.9 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 27.8 28.8 28.7 2.4 78.4 70.2 24.5 26.0 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.6 21.3 1.1 63.7 58.7 19.8 21.4 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 28.3 29.1 27.7 2.1 75.3 67.3 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 28.3 29.4 28.4 2.6 79.6 71.7 24.7 26.3 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 28.1 29.2 28.7 2.6 79.7 71.2 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 27.7 28.2 26.2 1.9 73.1 66.0 24.5 26.0 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 28.6 29.4 26.6 2.1 76.3 67.8 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 27.9 28.3 24.7 1.7 72.6 64.7 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.8 27.4 2.1 77.0 68.6 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 29.5 29.9 26.1 1.6 72.7 65.0 26.1 27.7 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.6 22.5 23.1 1.3 66.3 60.9 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 28.2 29.0 28.4 2.2 76.8 68.9 24.8 26.4 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------