***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 29.2 30.0 28.8 2.1 79.2 69.2 26.5 27.7 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.4 28.7 1.9 76.2 67.5 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.8 29.1 2.1 78.8 68.7 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 21.7 22.5 26.7 1.9 78.1 68.4 19.1 20.3 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 29.5 30.3 27.1 2.0 77.9 68.4 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 28.1 28.6 24.4 1.7 75.7 66.9 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 28.7 29.2 28.6 1.8 75.5 67.2 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.4 17.9 25.0 1.7 74.1 65.3 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.9 27.4 2.1 78.8 68.7 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 28.7 29.3 25.8 1.9 75.8 66.4 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.8 26.7 2.0 77.5 68.0 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 28.0 28.6 26.3 1.9 75.7 67.0 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 29.3 29.7 25.4 1.8 74.0 66.2 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 28.7 28.9 26.5 1.6 72.6 64.8 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.7 27.9 2.1 81.3 70.0 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.7 26.3 2.0 76.8 67.9 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 28.3 28.7 28.5 1.9 75.5 67.5 25.8 26.9 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.0 28.3 25.0 1.7 73.0 64.6 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 28.6 29.1 28.9 2.1 78.2 68.5 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.8 23.8 22.3 1.4 69.1 61.7 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.9 28.3 2.1 78.2 68.4 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.0 29.5 28.5 2.1 78.0 69.1 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.7 29.0 2.3 80.4 69.4 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 28.4 28.9 26.7 1.9 75.2 66.3 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.8 27.1 2.0 78.6 68.7 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 28.9 29.8 25.9 2.1 78.7 69.8 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 28.7 29.3 27.8 2.0 77.7 68.3 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 29.9 30.6 27.0 1.9 78.4 68.5 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.4 23.4 23.8 1.4 70.0 62.5 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 28.8 29.3 28.7 2.0 76.8 67.7 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------