***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 18.3 31.7 20.1 136.0 74.3 64.4 8.0 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 26.1 26.5 16.2 118.2 69.3 61.8 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 19.1 28.0 17.4 116.9 68.9 59.9 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 27.9 34.0 23.6 147.4 77.4 67.9 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.3 23.6 19.3 124.1 70.7 61.3 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.6 23.8 24.5 124.8 70.8 62.2 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.5 20.7 15.2 109.5 66.8 59.8 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 25.6 28.7 23.1 102.1 62.2 55.1 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 24.1 26.6 22.5 136.0 74.3 65.6 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.9 20.8 23.5 111.6 65.6 58.2 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.8 21.2 18.8 114.4 67.5 59.4 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.7 17.0 19.9 111.5 66.1 58.0 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.2 16.0 16.6 94.6 60.1 51.1 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.6 30.5 21.9 109.5 65.6 58.0 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 20.4 24.4 18.7 144.2 76.2 66.4 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.2 17.1 18.6 114.4 67.4 58.3 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 30.8 30.4 16.4 115.9 68.7 61.3 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 19.4 24.1 24.9 114.1 66.6 59.0 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 29.4 30.6 17.0 121.6 70.3 62.3 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.1 22.1 95.7 58.4 50.7 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 22.7 27.0 20.8 137.6 74.8 66.2 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 19.0 23.7 14.7 105.8 65.2 57.8 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.3 22.6 17.5 117.2 68.7 59.8 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.2 28.6 21.0 115.9 67.9 59.0 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 17.9 29.0 19.6 128.1 72.2 63.1 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.3 15.5 89.2 57.9 50.7 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 17.7 30.1 20.2 129.8 72.6 63.3 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 17.4 19.8 21.8 136.9 74.5 66.5 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.7 29.1 23.7 109.3 64.5 56.1 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 20.8 26.9 16.0 114.4 68.2 60.5 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------