***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.4 22.6 21.4 119.8 69.6 55.8 5.4 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.7 27.1 21.4 134.8 74.0 58.3 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 34.6 45.9 25.4 150.8 78.2 63.9 8.6 17.4 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.9 40.5 25.7 152.1 78.3 60.5 9.7 17.5 28.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 22.0 28.4 25.8 150.4 78.0 63.3 6.6 12.0 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 26.1 30.5 28.1 142.6 76.1 64.8 6.1 12.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.3 23.7 21.2 130.4 72.8 58.8 6.3 11.7 19.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 30.4 36.2 26.6 149.0 76.9 65.0 10.2 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 28.0 37.1 26.5 153.8 79.0 64.3 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 35.2 45.8 29.1 158.0 79.8 65.6 11.5 19.9 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.5 28.0 26.6 147.5 77.5 62.8 7.8 13.2 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 19.7 21.9 23.2 135.3 73.9 62.1 5.8 10.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 21.4 26.9 26.4 145.5 76.8 66.6 5.9 11.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 34.1 43.7 30.5 154.8 78.9 65.9 10.2 18.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 23.7 24.5 151.2 77.9 57.2 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.9 20.4 24.2 140.8 75.8 62.9 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.8 23.2 21.8 134.7 73.9 57.3 6.1 11.3 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.8 36.7 31.2 149.2 78.1 64.9 8.3 15.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 21.5 35.3 22.1 140.3 75.4 59.8 9.0 16.4 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 29.8 35.8 29.7 140.5 75.6 66.2 6.6 14.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.0 28.8 25.5 148.1 77.6 61.3 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.2 24.8 21.2 133.3 73.3 57.7 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 24.1 31.7 24.1 150.0 77.8 63.4 6.7 12.8 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 37.8 49.0 30.0 156.5 79.7 66.0 13.2 22.2 33.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.4 28.7 27.3 137.1 74.6 60.8 7.4 13.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 22.6 28.3 26.4 146.2 77.3 68.8 5.3 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.0 26.7 25.1 124.8 71.0 57.9 7.0 13.5 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.9 29.2 24.4 152.6 78.3 59.4 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 36.0 44.7 32.9 148.3 78.1 66.6 11.0 19.8 31.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.4 33.4 21.7 134.2 73.9 59.7 7.6 15.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------