***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.3 12.9 12.4 77.8 55.8 41.1 5.4 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 5.9 16.6 11.4 86.2 58.7 39.7 6.3 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 6.7 16.8 13.0 82.2 57.3 41.0 6.8 13.2 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.1 14.7 14.0 96.1 62.4 43.8 3.8 9.0 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.7 15.2 12.5 83.0 58.0 41.5 4.3 10.7 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.9 13.9 16.3 97.3 62.3 45.3 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.9 16.3 11.7 87.8 59.8 40.7 5.1 11.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.1 18.7 14.9 89.7 59.4 43.5 5.7 12.7 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.3 13.2 80.3 56.8 41.3 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.6 16.1 15.4 83.1 56.6 41.9 6.1 12.7 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.9 11.1 79.9 56.4 40.2 4.0 9.0 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.5 11.4 12.5 89.7 59.9 42.5 3.8 7.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 13.0 15.3 102.2 64.5 46.3 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.0 15.6 15.3 74.5 53.1 39.4 7.0 14.0 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.4 11.2 92.8 62.4 40.9 2.3 5.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.2 13.4 93.6 61.3 43.4 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.2 14.2 10.8 86.7 59.1 41.1 5.4 10.5 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.3 18.3 87.4 57.6 44.2 4.2 9.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.4 15.4 11.6 84.8 58.1 39.3 5.5 11.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.8 19.1 100.1 62.5 49.8 5.2 9.5 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.7 13.7 12.8 79.7 56.7 39.8 5.5 10.9 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.5 13.1 10.4 78.6 55.8 40.6 5.3 10.7 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 5.9 15.2 12.3 83.4 57.6 39.3 6.6 12.1 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 7.1 18.2 15.7 82.1 56.3 41.3 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.5 13.9 13.9 84.5 58.0 41.6 5.8 11.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.1 15.6 13.0 105.2 65.8 49.4 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.2 15.4 13.1 78.6 55.7 41.8 7.2 13.0 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.9 13.7 99.3 63.9 43.5 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.8 18.6 18.7 89.9 58.4 46.2 7.0 13.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 5.4 14.2 11.9 84.5 58.5 40.9 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------