***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 4.6 10.6 10.9 73.4 53.7 37.5 5.2 9.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.1 14.5 11.2 83.9 58.7 39.3 7.5 11.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 5.4 12.6 11.8 83.0 57.7 40.3 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.2 12.4 11.5 90.2 60.5 42.3 5.4 9.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.0 9.7 10.2 79.4 56.1 40.9 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.5 13.8 89.5 59.2 44.5 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.2 10.5 76.4 55.6 37.8 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.7 16.5 12.3 78.0 54.1 42.4 7.5 14.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.9 11.3 79.1 56.0 40.8 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.6 13.2 77.6 53.9 41.7 5.5 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.0 9.2 76.8 54.7 42.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.2 9.8 80.2 56.1 42.5 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.8 10.6 81.9 56.9 41.9 2.8 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.5 17.5 15.3 84.7 57.4 39.9 8.0 14.2 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.1 9.8 10.6 100.1 64.3 41.8 2.3 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.1 10.0 82.6 57.3 42.6 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.3 11.7 10.6 81.7 57.8 36.6 4.4 8.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.8 14.4 15.8 81.4 54.6 42.4 6.7 12.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.8 12.8 11.7 86.6 59.5 39.5 4.8 9.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.3 14.4 16.0 85.7 55.6 43.9 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.3 13.6 11.5 83.7 58.3 40.5 6.8 11.1 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 4.5 12.4 11.5 84.3 58.7 35.8 5.4 9.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 5.6 15.2 12.2 88.6 59.8 40.2 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.8 22.4 14.3 86.8 58.2 42.1 11.4 18.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.4 12.1 12.8 84.4 58.1 40.0 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.3 9.2 85.9 59.3 44.5 2.0 4.4 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.7 12.5 12.3 77.0 55.3 39.1 6.0 10.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.9 8.0 11.0 91.1 61.0 42.9 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.3 19.0 16.1 81.5 53.9 42.6 9.3 16.8 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 6.7 15.0 11.5 81.3 57.7 39.4 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------