***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 49.2 76.9 64.8 102.2 58.8 51.3 51.2 67.6 85.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 59.1 84.7 60.2 107.2 62.2 50.5 59.7 73.9 88.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 59.6 98.8 67.6 109.4 63.6 53.7 62.5 81.3 102.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 78.5 101.1 74.8 124.2 72.1 60.7 50.8 69.4 91.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 73.9 82.7 67.8 111.7 65.1 55.6 48.3 65.2 84.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 41.0 76.8 82.7 115.3 68.0 58.7 42.5 57.3 74.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 47.4 72.6 58.7 102.4 59.2 49.4 49.2 64.1 80.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 103.5 106.6 76.9 105.4 60.6 53.6 71.9 92.4 114.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 70.9 82.3 73.5 114.1 66.6 57.5 44.5 61.7 81.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 59.0 92.2 81.1 107.9 62.4 54.4 59.6 77.4 97.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 68.0 72.6 65.8 107.8 62.5 54.6 44.7 59.8 76.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 59.4 62.9 65.4 106.7 61.6 54.7 36.1 51.0 68.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 57.4 61.9 68.9 108.4 62.9 55.2 38.2 50.9 64.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 73.2 105.3 83.1 105.8 60.9 51.3 74.4 92.7 112.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 52.3 71.5 64.9 125.4 72.0 59.2 28.1 43.3 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 51.9 57.8 66.1 110.6 64.4 55.8 34.0 45.9 59.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 47.1 80.9 59.5 106.8 62.0 50.9 47.3 65.5 86.9 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 54.7 88.9 90.1 108.4 62.9 54.9 56.4 73.7 92.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 61.6 94.3 62.5 109.6 63.8 51.4 62.7 79.1 97.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 52.2 80.6 86.9 106.0 61.1 54.4 52.5 68.7 86.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 72.7 82.3 70.6 113.7 66.3 56.2 50.4 65.1 81.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 47.7 74.0 57.9 101.9 58.3 47.7 49.0 65.2 83.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 56.7 83.7 66.1 111.0 64.7 52.8 57.5 70.8 85.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 75.8 116.0 81.0 111.1 64.9 54.9 78.5 97.5 117.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 74.7 81.6 73.6 110.1 64.0 54.4 48.5 65.6 84.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 55.6 62.8 64.1 109.6 63.8 56.7 35.1 48.9 65.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 54.4 83.5 70.7 103.5 59.7 52.2 55.7 72.7 91.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 52.1 64.0 70.9 122.6 71.1 59.7 35.3 46.6 59.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 77.8 114.6 91.3 108.2 62.8 55.4 79.8 98.7 119.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 62.9 87.5 61.1 104.7 60.5 50.4 64.5 78.1 92.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------